- Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that the U.S. economy will add 11.9 million jobs over the next decade
- COVID-19 pandemic expected to influence some long-term trends, including decline in retail demand and growth in information technology jobs
- Aging baby boomers expected to contribute to accelerating demand for health care workers
Summary by Dirk Langeveld
Jobs growth in the United States is expected to proceed at an accelerated pace in the next decade, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. This trend is due in part to lower base values created by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in more pronounced growth.
BLS projects that total employment in the U.S. will grow by 11.9 million jobs between 2020 and 2030, increasing from 153.5 million to 165.4 million. This reflects a 0.7 percent annual growth rate.
“Many industries are expected to experience cyclical recoveries in the earlier part of their projections decade as industry output and employment normalize, returning to their long-term growth patterns,” the BLS report says. “Projected robust growth for industries in which employment fell in 2020 is also projected to result in strong growth for the occupations employed by those industries.”
- The pandemic is projected to have a long-term impact on certain industries, such as the continuation of heightened demand for information technology services and an amplification of the decline in retail due to e-commerce
- Manufacturing is expected to see some recovery, but also accounts for 11 of the 20 industries with the fastest anticipated decline in employment due to factors such as international competition and technology adoption
- BLS anticipates that accommodation and food services will have fastest growth due to recovery, while health care and social assistance will add most jobs; health care support occupations are projected to have the fastest growth among all occupational groups
- Leisure and hospitality accounts for seven of the 20 industries with anticipated fastest growth due to recovery of restaurants, arts and entertainment, and other businesses slammed by pandemic
- Aging baby boomers are expected to contribute to a slower labor force growth rate as well as increased demand for health care services
- Real GDP is forecast to grow annually at 2.3 percent, while labor productivity is expected to grow at 1.7 percent per year