- Connecticut Department of Labor economist issues short-term forecast for employment growth in the state
- Job growth projected to increase 13.5 percent through the end of the second quarter of 2022, recovering most of the positions lost in the COVID-19 pandemic
- Recovery of hard-hit sectors expected to drive the bulk of Connecticut’s employment growth in the near future
Summary by Dirk Langeveld
Connecticut will recover the bulk of the jobs it lost in the COVID-19 pandemic by the end of the second quarter of 2022, according to a projection by the Department of Labor. However, the forecast anticipates that job growth will largely be driven by the replacement of positions in the sectors that were hardest hit by the pandemic rather than any major shift in Connecticut’s economy.
The report was published in the Connecticut Economic Digest by Connecticut Department of Labor economist Matthew Krzyzek. The national economy dropped 14.7 percent between February and April 2020 amid government-mandated shutdowns in response to the pandemic, according to the report, while Connecticut’s economy fell 17.2 percent. Krzyzek says Connecticut has recovered about 58 percent of the jobs lost during the pandemic, on par with the national recovery and a stronger pace than the neighboring states of Massachusetts and New York.
By the end of the second quarter of 2022, Krzyzek anticipates that Connecticut employment will increase 13.5 percent from about 1.54 million jobs to 1.75 million jobs. This figure would reflect a recovery of the bulk of jobs lost in the state during the pandemic.
Krzyzek suggests that the most robust growth will come from a rebound in industries that suffered the worst economic losses during the pandemic, including a 116.7 percent boost in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector; a 97 percent increase in accommodation and food service jobs; and a 43.2 percent in non-government other services. Transportation and warehousing is projected to see a 35.1 percent gain in jobs, continuing a long-term trend as well as short-term demand brought on by increased e-commerce and deliveries during the pandemic.
Pandemic recovery is also expected to drive the strongest growth in individual occupations. Krzyek’s projection says Connecticut will add 57,000 food preparation and service jobs by the end of the second quarter of 2022, 22,000 positions in transportation and material moving, 21,600 jobs in personal care and service, and 16,600 jobs in sales and related occupations.
Conversely, the state is projected to see a 4.7 percent decline in utilities jobs, a 4.4 percent drop in positions in finance and insurance, and a 0.1 percent loss in information jobs. Krzyzek says the drop in finance and insurance jobs reflects a longer-term decline in that industry after sector employment peaked in 2007.
Connecticut’s four largest sectors are health care, manufacturing, educational services, and retail, accounting for 40 percent of the state’s jobs. However, Krzyzek says these sectors are projected to contribute less than 20 percent of employment change through the second quarter of 2022.
