- Reviewing early shopping trends, Gallup anticipates that holiday spending will be about even with 2020 levels
- About two-thirds of respondents to an early October poll said they believe they will spend roughly the same amount on gifts as they did last year
- Other forecasts anticipate a more robust gain in holiday spending
Summary by Dirk Langeveld
Early shopping trends are suggesting that holiday spending this season will roughly match last year’s levels, according to Gallup.
The polling company takes readings in October to look at early consumer habits and the likely strength of sales, conducting a follow-up in November. It estimates that there will be $837 billion in holiday spending this year, statistically similar to the $805 billion spent in 2020 but down from a record $942 billion in 2019.
Gallup suggests that retailers will see average holiday spending this year. However, it also warned that trends can easily shift in the coming weeks, with factors such as inflation or higher gas prices potentially causing consumers to rein in their spending.
- A Gallup poll issued Oct. 1-19 found that 64 percent of respondents plan to spend about the same amount on gifts as they did in 2020, while 22 percent believe they will spend less and 13 percent anticipate spending more
- The National Retail Federation, which says holiday spending has grown by an average of 3.4 percent each year since 2000, previously released a forecast suggesting that spending will grow 8.5 to 10.5 percent to a range of $843.4 billion to $859 billion
- The NRF sees this increase occurring despite headwinds such as labor shortages and supply chain issues, which it says can be offset by positive trends like greater comfort with in-person shopping due to COVID-19 vaccines, lower debt loads due to people paying down these burdens during the pandemic, and increased savings
- Other forecasts suggest an increase in holiday spending of at least 7 percent
